AI took first, second and fifth place at the Metaculus forecasting cup
A bot called Laertes won the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, which closed on September 5, with bots also taking second and fifth; the best human forecasters finished third and fourth. Hundreds of entrants predicted outcomes on questions ranging from data center rules to disease outbreaks, scored on accuracy and consistency over time. Jeffrey Liang, who built Laertes, says he spent under 150 hours and a couple of thousand dollars on it.
Sources
- The Economist, “Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters”, (economist.com)
- Metaculus, “Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 Winners!”, (metaculus.com)
- Metaculus, post on X, (x.com)
About this story
This story was posted on Instagram by @jarrus.tech on Sept. 25, 2026.
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This story in Turkish: Yapay zeka Metaculus tahmin kupasında birinci, ikinci ve beşinci oldu
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